ECB’s interest rate increase positively affects replication performance of directors’ dealings in Germany
June 17, 2026
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) increased the interest rate from 2 to 2.25% for the first time in nearly three years.1 Rising interest rates often immediately reduce performance of stocks because costs of borrowing increase.2 A previous blog post showed that ECB interest rate cuts positively influence the replication performance of directors’ dealings. In light of all this, the question is: How might ECB’s recent interest rate increase affect the performance of replicated directors’ dealings in Germany? BOSS STOCKS analyzed the 17 directors’ dealings (stock acquisitions) in the German DAX which took place within two months after the announcement of the ECB’s last interest rate increase in September 2023. The returns are evaluated on timeframes of one, three and six months ending before the ECB lowered the interest rate in June 2024.
ECB’s interest rate increase positively influences replication performance of directors’ dealings in Germany
- The results show that replicating directors’ dealings is successful with a simple strategy: Buying stocks for the opening share price of the day that follows the day of the release of a director’s dealing and holding for one month led to average investment returns of nearly 5%.
- For periods of three and six months, the returns are even higher, accounting for more than 13% and almost 25%. This is in line with and exceeds the positive market trend (+7 p.p.).
- 10 companies are associated with the 17 directors’ dealings. There are only two companies with three or more directors’ dealings: Heidelberg Materials and RWE.
- There is only one director with more than one dealing in this set. The top performers with the highest return after one month is Karin Radström of Daimler Truck. For three as well as six months, it is Armin Papperger of Rheinmetall.
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Paradoxically, the results suggest that the ECB’s interest rate increases are positively associated with the performance of directors’ dealings in Germany. BOSS STOCKS helps you replicate such directors’ dealings. Free sign up to join the waiting list.